Should you swap?

This lesson explores the classic probability problem, commonly known as the Monty Hall problem: having chosen what you think is the winning door with the money behind it, should you swap to another door when Monty offers you the opportunity? Students will first use probability language to define the problem. Students will then construct a mathematical model and run a number of trials before collating their data to determine whether the probabilities match the reality of experiencing the situation. Finally, students will consider what lessons from the Monty Hall problem can be generalised to other gambling behaviours, including trusting the mathematics behind gambling, and how other ‘human factors’ can influence gamblers towards riskier behaviours and decisions around gambling. The lesson is outlined in detail including curriculum links, learning intentions, discussion points, materials required, student and teacher reflection points. This lesson is part of the GambleAware program from the Office of Responsible Gambling, Department of Enterprise, Investment and Trade, NSW Government.